Na'urar hauhawar farashi kyauta. Ga farashin nan gaba, nawa ikon sayayyar kudin ka zai rasa a tsawon lokaci, da nawa adadin yau ya kasance darajarsa shekaru da suka wuce.
Na'urar hauhawar farashi tana tsinkayar yadda ƙimar hauhawar farashi ta shekara mai tsayayye take canza darajar kudi a tsawon lokaci: Kudin Nan Gaba = Adadi x (1 + Ƙima / 100)^Shekaru, da Ikon Sayayya = Adadi / (1 + Ƙima / 100)^Shekaru. A hauhawar farashi na shekara na 3%, kayayyakin da suke farashin €1,000 a yau za su kai €1,343.92 a cikin shekaru 10 — kuma €1,000 da aka ajiye a matsayin kudi kawai zai sayi abin da €744.09 zai sayi a yau.
An sabunta na ƙarshe:
Na'urar Hauhawar Farashi
Na'urar hauhawar farashi tana amsa tambayoyi biyu da kowane mai ajiya yake yi a wani lokaci: nawa abubuwan da nake saya a yau za su kashe a nan gaba, kuma nawa kudina zai ainihi darajarsa nan gaba? Amsoshin biyun suna zuwa daga irin dabarar hadewa. Idan farashi suna ƙaruwa a ƙima madaidaici ta shekara, kudin nan gaba na irin kwandon kayayyaki shine adadin ninka da (1 + ƙima)^shekaru, yayin da ikon sayayyar kudin da aka ajiye kamar kudi shine adadin raba da irin wannan abin.
Misalin da aka yi aiki da shi yana sa abin ya bayyana: a hauhawar farashi na shekara na 3%, kayayyakin da suke farashin €1,000 a yau za su kai €1,343.92 a cikin shekaru 10. Juya ra'ayin kuma irin lissafin yana cewa €1,000 da aka ajiye a ƙarƙashin katifa a tsawon wadancan shekaru 10 zai sayi kawai abin da €744.09 zai sayi a yau — rashin kimanin kwata na ikon sayayyarsa, ba tare da wata euro ta ainihi ta ɓace ba.
Amfani da na'urar hauhawar farashi yana ɗaukar dakiku kaɗan: shigar da adadi, ƙimar hauhawar farashi ta shekara da ake tsammani (3% shine tsohuwa, kusa da matsakaicin dogon lokaci a yawancin tattalin arziƙin da suka ci gaba), da adadin shekaru tsakanin 1 zuwa 50. Sakamakon yana sabuntawa nan take, kuma taswirar tana bin diddigin yadda ikon sayayya yake narkewa shekara bayan shekara — layi wanda ya fi kowace lamba guda gamsarwa.
Hadewa
Tarkon fahimta: hauhawar farashi na 3% na shekaru 10 yana ji kamar ƙaruwar farashi na 30%. Ba haka bane. Domin ƙaruwar kowace shekara tana aiki a kan farashin da ya riga ya haɗa da dukkan ƙaruwar da suka gabata, ainihin ƙaruwar shine 1.03^10 - 1 = 34.4%. A tsawon shekaru 20, gibin yana ƙaruwa sosai: farashi suna ƙaruwa da 80.6%, ba 60% ba, kuma €1,000 na kudi yana raguwa zuwa €553.68 na ikon sayayyar yau.
Wannan shine ainihin riba mai hadewa tana aiki a kanka. Irin lankarwar mai ƙaruwa mai sauri wadda take sa saka jari na dogon lokaci ya zama mai ƙarfi haka take sa ajiyar kudi na dogon lokaci ta zama mai tsada. Hanya mai amfani mai sauri ita ce dokar 72: raba 72 da ƙimar hauhawar farashi don ƙiyasin shekaru nawa ake bukata don farashi su ninka. A 3%, farashi suna ninka kusan kowace shekara 24 — ma'ana kudi yana rasa rabin ikon sayayyarsa cikin kimanin tsara ɗaya.
Ainihi Idan Aka Kwatanta da Bayyananna
Asusun ajiya wanda yake biyan riba na 2% a shekara ta hauhawar farashi na 3% ba ya adana kudinka — yana rasa kimanin 1% na ikon sayayya a kowace shekara. Ribar bayyananna (kashi-darin da aka talla) tana gaya maka nawa euro za ka samu; ribar ainihi (ribar bayyananna rage hauhawar farashi) tana gaya maka abin da wadancan euro za su saya. Kowace shawarar kuɗi na dogon lokaci — fansho, manufofin ajiya, tattaunawar albashi — ya kamata a yanke ta ta hanyar sharuɗɗan ainihi.
Irin dabarar tana aiki a kan kudin shiga. Albashin da ya kasance daidai na shekaru biyar na hauhawar farashi na 3% a hankali ya sami rage na 13.7% na ainihi. Gudanar da albashinka ta hanyar na'urar hauhawar farashi yana nuna ƙarin albashin da kake bukata don kawai ka tsaya a wuri guda — matsayi mai ƙarfi sosai na tattaunawa fiye da buƙatar lamba mai zagaye.
Masu saka jari suna fuskantar irin gwajin. Bond mai bayar da riba na 3% a yanayin hauhawar farashi na 3% kawai yana tsayawa a wuri guda; jarin hannun jari mai bayar da riba na 7% yana kawo kimanin 4% na girma na ainihi. Lokacin da kake kwatanta zaɓuɓɓukan saka jari, ka rage ƙimar hauhawar farashi da kake tsammani daga kowace riba da aka talla tukuna — wannan shine kawai hanyar kwatanta abin da kowane zaɓi zai barka ka saya a ƙarshe.
Duban Baya
Lissafin baya yana da amfani kamar na gaba. Da adadin yau da ƙimar hauhawar farashi ta shekara matsakaici, raba da (1 + ƙima)^shekaru yana nuna wanne adadin kudi a baya yake da irin ikon sayayya. A matsakaicin hauhawar farashi na 3%, €1,000 na yau ya dace da kimanin €744 shekaru goma da suka wuce da €554 shekaru ashirin da suka wuce.
Wannan shine hanya mai gaskiya ta kwatanta farashi, albashi, da darajar kadarori a tsawon shekarun da suka wuce. Farashin daga 2005 wanda aka ambata kusa da farashin yau yana kwatanta unit daban-daban — euro na ikon sayayya daban-daban sosai. Juya duka biyu zuwa kudin yau shine kawai hanyar ganin ko wani abu ya zama tsada da gaske ko kuma kawai yana ji haka domin dukkan farashi sun ƙaru.
Ka tuna cewa na'urar tana ɗauka ƙima madaidaici ta matsakaici, yayin da ainihin hauhawar farashi yana bambanta daga shekara zuwa shekara kuma tana bambanta tsakanin rukunoni — gidaje, makamashi, da hidimomi ba kasafai suke motsawa tare ba tare da babbar alama. Don tsara mai sauƙi, matsakaici madaidaici ya isa; don juyawa na tarihi mai daidaito, yi amfani da jerin ma'aunin farashin masu amfani na hukuma da Eurostat ko hukumar ƙididdiga ta ƙasarka suka fitar.
Na'urori Masu Alaƙa
Hauhawar farashi rabin daya ne na dabarun kudi na dogon lokaci — girma shine ɗayan. Yi amfani da na'urar riba mai hadewa don ganin yadda kudin da aka saka a jari yake girma a irin lokacin, na'urar ajiya don tsara gudummuwar akai-akai, da na'urar kashi-dari don sauri duba canjin ƙima.
Amfani a Zahiri
Tsara ritaya
Ƙididdige nawa kasafin kuɗin wata-wata na yau zai kashe a shekaru 20 ko 30, don manufar fansho ta zama a farashin nan gaba maimakon na yau.
Tattaunawar albashi
Gano ƙarin albashin da ake bukata kawai don daidaita hauhawar farashi, da nawa ikon sayayya na ainihi albashin da ya tsaya a wuri guda ya rasa.
Shawarwarin ajiya na dogon lokaci
Kwatanta ribar ainihi, wadda aka daidaita da hauhawar farashi, na asusun ajiya ko ajiya da kawai riƙe kudi.
Kwatanta farashi a tsawon shekaru
Juya farashin tarihi, albashi, ko darajar kadara zuwa kudin yau don kwatanci na gaskiya.
Saita manufofin saka jari
Duba ko ribar saka jari da ake tsammani da gaske ta fi hauhawar farashi, da nawa a ma'aunin ainihi.
Hauhawar farashi tana hadewa kamar riba: ƙaruwar farashi ta kowace shekara tana aiki a kan farashin da ya riga ya haɗa da kowace ƙaruwa ta gabata. A hauhawar farashi na shekara na 3%, farashi suna ƙaruwa da abin 1.03 kowace shekara, don haka bayan shekaru 10 sun kai 1.03^10 = 1.34 sau — ƙaruwar jimlar 34.4%, ba 30% ba. Yadda lokacin ya tsawaita, girman gibi tsakanin jimillar sauƙi da ainihin tasirin hadewa yake ƙaruwa.
Yawancin manyan bankunan tsakiya, ciki har da Babban Bankin Turai, suna nufin kimanin hauhawar farashi na shekara na 2%. Ƙarama ƙima tabbatacciya tana barin sarari don rage kudin ruwa a lokacin faɗuwar tattalin arziki, tana sauƙaƙe daidaita albashi da farashi, kuma tana ajiye tazarar tsaro daga deflation — faɗuwar farashi gabaɗaya wadda take ƙarfafa mutane su jinkirta kashe kuɗi kuma na iya kamawa tattalin arziki a cikin mawuyacin hali.
Darajar bayyananna ita ce adadin kudin da aka rubuta — €1,000 tana kasancewa €1,000 a takarda. Darajar ainihi ita ce abin da wannan kudin zai iya saya bayan an daidaita hauhawar farashi. Idan farashi suna ƙaruwa da 3% kowace shekara, €1,000 da aka ajiye kamar kudi na shekaru 10 har yanzu yana nuna €1,000 a bayyane, amma darajarsa ta ainihi €744.09 kawai ce a kudin yau. Darajojin ainihi su ne abin da yake da muhimmanci ga ajiya, albashi, da ribar jari.
A ƙima madaidaici ta hauhawar farashi na shekara na 3%, €1,000 zai rasa kimanin 25.6% na ikon sayayyarsa a tsawon shekaru 10. Kayayyakin da suke farashin €1,000 a yau za su kai €1,343.92, kuma €1,000 naka zai sayi kawai abin da €744.09 zai sayi a yau. A tsawon shekaru 20 a irin wannan ƙimar, rashin yana ƙaruwa zuwa kimanin 44.6%.
Don tsara na dogon lokaci a yankin euro, manufar ECB ta 2% tushe ne mai kyau, yayin da 3% take ƙara tazarar tsaro. Don ƙiyasi na gajeren lokaci, yi amfani da mafi kwanan nan ƙimar shekara da hukumar ƙididdiga ta ƙasarka ko Eurostat suka fitar. Za ka iya kuma gudanar da lissafin da ƙima ƙarama da ƙima mai girma don ganin kewayo na gaskiya maimakon lamba guda.
Ee — faɗuwar farashi gabaɗaya ana kiranta deflation. A lokacin deflation, ikon sayayyar kudi yana ƙaruwa: irin adadin yana sayan kayayyaki fiye da yadda ake yi a baya. Kodayake hakan yana ji kamar abu mai kyau, deflation mai dorewa yawanci alama ce ta matsalar tattalin arziki, domin faɗuwar farashi tana ƙarfafa masu sayayya su jinkirta siyayya kuma tana sa bashin da ke akwai ya fi wahalar biya.